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FISH ON WALL STREET AND AT THE POKER TABLE

04*6*10

“The line between gambling and investing is artificial and thin. Maybe the best definition of ‘investing’ is ‘gambling with the odds in your favor.’” –Michael Lewis

People think poker is exciting. For guys like me, it’s not. It’s a job. We play methodically, make as few mistakes as possible, and clock the fish most every time. Today, soon after waking up and giving my girlfriend a kiss, I logged on, bought in, and promptly lost $30,000. This happened as she was sitting at my side, staring at the computer screen, asking me to teach her how to play poker, wondering why I was doing what I was doing. The questions intensified as things turned around, I erased my losses, and finished $40,000 in the black.

Not to sound cocky or anything, but, for me, that $70,000 swing was about as exciting as finding a penny on Las Vegas Boulevard and as a predictable as a Spearmint Rhino stripper asking me if I want a lapdance. It’s definitely not gambling. By Michael Lewis’s definition, it’s more like investing.

This brings us to what really got me going today: The Big Short, a terrific new book by Michael Lewis (he’s a former Wall Street guy who wrote Liar’s Poker and Moneyball; he talks about The Big Short on 60 Minuteshttp://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6298082n&tag=related;photovideo). Basically, it tells the story of the recent economic collapse, focusing on an all too complicated scam that began with banks issuing mortgages to people who couldn’t afford them. Wall Street firms bought these grade-z mortgages and packaged them up into indecipherable bonds that looked like risk free investments. Fund managers were seduced into buying the bonds, and they, in turn, convinced individuals, pension funds, investment banks, and insurance companies to ante up for the pretty looking investments.

Ultimately, money was made at every turn — until the investors were left holding what were basically fancily wrapped bags of shit. The bankers and professional traders bought in as well, taking wild chances because they got compensated hugely if their bets paid off and got compensated less hugely if they didn’t. But none of their own money was at risk, so they took absurd gambits with other people’s finances.

What makes the book interesting is that it centers on really smart guys who were the first ones to recognize these bonds for the worthless garbage they were. The smart guys shorted the bonds; the dumb guys happily allowed them to. In the end, the smart guys made hundreds of millions, Wall Street firms got clobbered, and the government bailed out the Merrill Lynches of the world – where executives’ seven -, eight-, and nine-figure bonuses remained intact. The public got doubly screwed, first losing on their investments and later losing on their tax dollars that went to save the Wall Street companies.

I don’t care what anybody says, I think that bailing out the system is absurd. Wall Street isn’t being made to pay a price for its recklessness. It would be like a stranger giving me $5-million as a bankroll with which to play poker for a month. If I win, we split the profits. If I lose, there are no hard feelings and no payback. Of course I’d take the biggest risks for the biggest returns. I’d be freerolling like some MBA suit on the Street!

Reading the book got me to thinking about all the people who give me advice on what to do with my poker winnings. Nine out of 10 times I’m told to buy stocks, buy bonds, buy real estate, buy mutual funds, do anything but leave it in my box at Bellagio. I’ve never listened. I always had a suspicion that investing in anything I didn’t understand makes me a sucker. I’ve spent a lot of hours at poker tables and I’ve seen countless fish who think they know what they’re doing, only to go busto by trying to beat games they don’t understand. This book makes me more comfortable than ever with the decisions that I’ve made on what to do with my money.

At the risk of sounding arrogant, I’ve long thought of the average person as being stupid or at least not smart enough to recognize what he doesn’t understand. Poker is a game that provides quick, empirical, largely irrefutable evidence about how good, how smart, and how skilled you really are. The game has shaped the way I think about money and people and investing. I’ll argue that I’m a better person for it.

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BEING A HOMEBODY

03*31*10

BEING A HOMEBODY

Following the trip to Cancun, I had vowed to not leave my condo for 30 days. So far, I’ve gone out to dinner a few times and went to a club once. So, by Vegas standards, I have lived up to the promise.

That said, a lot of this blog will be about two of times that I ventured out over the last week or so. One night out was to celebrate the birthday of my good friend Alec Torelli. Alec, Luke Kim, some girls, and I all went to Bar Masa inside Aria at CityCenter. The sushi there is amazing, and we had a great time. Also in the restaurant were Erick Lindgren, Erica Schoenfeld, my trainer Dave and his wife, and a bunch of their friends. They were all together, and we joined them for drinks.

After dinner, when the check came, Luke and I decided to treat Alec. So we played credit card roulette for the tab, which is pretty standard in my crowd. I won and Luke handed the waiter his American Express card. A few minutes later, the waiter returned and very politely told Luke that the card had been turned down. Luke looked surprised and handed the waiter his Visa card. That, too, was declined. So Luke dug into his wallet.  But he didn’t have enough money on him to cover dinner. Suddenly he found himself in the unenviable position of having to borrow cash from Alec – the guy we wanted to treat.

That’s when we noticed Erick and his group cracking up. Erick tipped the waiter and had him play a pretty good joke on Luke – whose credit cards are all perfectly valid.

This past Saturday I was back at Aria to check out the nightclub Haze for the first time. I went with Luke and Mila and one of Mila’s friends. My buddy Jay had a table there and the plan was for us to go in and join him there. We were waiting and waiting, being totally dissed by the bouncers. Then we finally found a host who we thought would get us in. But he just grabbed Mila and her friend and Luke and I that we have to wait outside.

Trying to get into a club as a guy – with no connections – is the most tilting thing in the world. It was made even worse by a host who was walking up and down the line, telling single guys that if they give him 100-bucks he will let them in. I’ve heard about that sort of thing happening but had never seen it done so blatantly!

When Mila and her friend went in, they found Jay. He came out to get us and everything was cool again. Beautiful women were all over the club, we had bottle service, Snoop Dogg performed. It was a typical night out in Vegas. But, man, waiting to get into the place and being treated like a total undesirable, well, talk about a buzzkill. After Haze, we caught a ride with some random guy and his girlfriend (in his convertible!) and went to Drai’s. Antonio and Brian Rast were there. So we hung with them and the couple that drove us. We got out at around 5:00 a.m.

For Vegas, it was an early night.

At home in the condo, I’ve been playing a ton online and doing really well. Overall, since getting back from Cancun, I’m ahead by about $250,000 thanks to hard work, a bit of luck, and a lot of hours. Yesterday I played $100/$200 no limit on PokerStars and won $140,000, mostly from Daniel Negreanu. That felt really good. Here are a few of the more memorable hands.  No strategy talk as I hope these games keep running and i want to keep playing.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5320924

100k coolers are nice

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5320927P

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5320932P

Get the money in way ahead and lose.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5320938P

I try a bluff and get shoved on.

If you happen to see me playing the VictoryPoker $25,000 guarantee tournament on Sunday, give me a shout out. And do the same if you spot my friend Jonathan Little on there. He’s a great guy and our most recent signing!

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Good Session

03*24*10

Yesterday I played Gr8Belwski on pokerstars at 100/200PLO HU.  He plays a very interesting style opening 100% of Buttons and either defending or 3-betting 100% of big blinds which makes for a very fun agressive match.  I’ve played him some before over the past few weeks and was up very small vs him.  He likes to talk a lot of trash and complain about how unlucky he is and how bad he runs.  I think that he is lucky to have any money in his account.  Basically, he is the phil hellmuth of online poker.  Anyways, I picked off a ton of his bluffs, won some 60/40s and generally owned him until he was stuck 100k or so then the following hand came up.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5298042

Vs most opponents I’d just ship it when the c/r the flop but I thought he might ship a bare flush draw or other hands I was in very good shape vs if I reraised small.  After this hand he quit me.  He came back about an hour later and lost another 20k to me, and the 40k to Phil Galfond.  Overall, I won 95k vs him and 115k overall online.  My best day online in a while.  Hopefully, I keep getting good highstakes action as after Cancun I’m looking to put in some serious volume.

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